中国产业结构转型中的障碍突破与经济增长

随着生产要素的加速流动,产业结构对经济增长的影响更趋复杂化。文章主要分析了产业结构转型对中国经济增长的影响特征,以及经济增长的几个障碍,并提出相应的建议措施。     

改革开放以来中国现代舞的发展

本文对现代舞艺术的源头,发展,以及现代舞在中国的发展状况作了陈述,并对当下现代舞艺术发展之不足进行了反思,以及提出解决问题的方案。     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?

From July to December 2011, the three-month EURIBOR-OIS and EURIBOR-Repo spreads quadrupled and reached 100 basis points due to a stabilization of the EURIBOR and a decrease in the overnight index swap (OIS) and Repo. Using a specific monetary policy announcements and financial indicators database, we find that the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) unconventional measures did not systematically have a calming effect: Asset buyout announcements decreased market strains, whereas interest rates and liquidity provision announcements did not. Moreover, liquidity provision seems to have a stressing effect. Our findings are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings according to which forward guidance crucially determines the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.     

我国休闲农业产业化发展研究:述评与启示 

休闲农业为农业的发展注入了活力,成为农业转型升级、实现农业现代化的重要途径。休闲农业的巨大潜力就在于其多功能性,通过对农业生产活动、农村田园风光、农家生活、农耕文化的资源整合、科学规划及创新开发,能够满足城市居民观光娱乐、休闲度假、农事体验、学习教育、康体怡情等多重需求。休闲农业的未来之路将走向何处、如何走的问题自然而然地成为国内文献研究的一个热点,但研究水平参差不齐。一方面,目前对休闲农业的概念、产业属性、发展原则等具有决定性作用的基础性问题的认知上仍存有诸多分歧;另一方面,有些学者却已高瞻远瞩发现了休闲农业的未来趋势将走向产业化发展道路,并对休闲农业产业化发展的路径与组织方式进行了探讨。文章在总结反思国内文献研究成果的基础上,对休闲农业的概念、产业属性、发展原则及产业集群式的产业化发展路径与多元化的组织形式进行了述评,并得出几点启示,以期促进相关学术研究的深化。     

The Impact of Foreign Banks on Monetary Policy Transmission During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009: Evidence from Korea

This article examines the impact of foreign banks on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Korean economy during the period from 2000 to 2012, with a specific focus on the lending behavior of banks with different types of ownership. Using bank-level panel data of the banking system in Korea, we present consistent evidence on the buffering impact that the foreign banks, especially foreign bank branches including US bank branches, on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Korea from the bank-lending channel perspective during the global financial crisis of 2008–2009.     

An economic evaluation of market development programmes for US dairy products

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers.     

公共政策评估研究综述

政策评估是政策运行过程这一有机链条中的重要一环,对于改进政策制定系统,克服政策运行中的弊端和障碍,提高政策水平具有深远的意义。但是长期以来人们对这一环节的重视不够,通过对政策评估的研究,以其提高大家对政策评估重要性的认识。     

A neuro-fuzzy combination model based on singular spectrum analysis for air transport demand forecasting

Air transport demand forecasting is receiving increasing attention, especially because of intrinsic difficulties and practical applications. Total passengers are used as a proxy for air transport demand. However, the air passenger time series usually has a complex behavior due to their irregularity, high volatility and seasonality. This paper proposes a new hybrid approach, combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA), adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO), for short-term air passenger traffic prediction. The SSA is used for identifying and extracting the trend and seasonality of air transport demand and the artificial intelligence technologies, including ANFIS and IPSO, are utilized to deal with the irregularity and volatility of the demand. The HK air passenger data are collected to establish and validate the forecasting model. Empirical results clearly points to the enormous potential that the proposed approach possesses in air transport demand forecasting and can be considered as a viable alternative.     

基于产业链延伸的青海省产业结构优化路径研究

合理优化产业结构是实现地区经济跨越式发展的重要保障。文章从三次产业结构比、产业关联度和轻重工业比三方面对青海产业结构存在的问题进行了分析,之后,基于产业链延伸的视角,提出了优化产业结构的相关措施与建议。     

Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy actions

We examine the change in the effect of Federal Reserve’s policy actions on stock returns after the Fed started to use unconventional policy actions. We find that the response of stock returns to monetary policy actions are almost seven times higher after the federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound. We conduct additional analysis to examine the underlying causes of the increase in the impact of monetary policy actions of stock returns. We show that investors rebalance their portfolios towards equity after selling Treasury securities to the Federal Reserve during large scale asset purchases.